The third Mottley administration’s preparations for the national Budget could be overtaken by global uncertainty, a University of the West Indies economist warned on Thursday, suggesting that the plans for the April 1 start of the fiscal year may prove “pretty much pointless” in the short term if global instability continues to escalate.
At the same time, the island’s consumer campaigner suggested the March 16 Budget should focus on making the island more affordable for Barbadians.
Dr Antonio Alleyne raised the alarm that the unpredictability of the outcome of the Mideast war involving the United States, Israel and Iran over the next few months may mean that the government’s best-laid plans or proposals will be flawed.
Dr Alleyne told Barbados TODAY: “What occupies my mind right now are the external factors, and those external factors are going to play a significant role with respect to the budgetary proposals. So, my best bet would be more or likely flawed, or even the government’s best bet would likely be flawed, if we can’t predict what’s going to happen… and I don’t think anybody can predict what’s going to happen in the next few months.
“Those same policies are going to take time to trickle down to the average individual. It is likely not to be an increase in taxes because of the fear of what we expect to have. Obviously, it’s going to limit government’s expenditure. But my fear is that the fear of what’s going to happen in the next few months, or the unpredictable nature of activities right now, any planning would have to be adjusted.”
He continued: “Regardless of what is said in the budget, it will be met with significant changes in the short term. And this means then that, whatever is announced in the budget would be pretty much pointless, at this point.”
While acknowledging that the administration still has yearly social and financial commitments, the economist said that the situation is “very” fluid.
Nevertheless, he urged the government to put crime at the top of its budgetary proposals.
“What I would like to see is the government tackling crime, the government recognising the shortfall of CARICOM and actually making a decision on whether or not we are sticking with the CARICOM initiatives… other than that, it’s wasting time. From a domestic perspective, find ways for us to get greater production in all sectors of the Barbados economy.”
He argued that whatever Barbados is doing now in terms of productivity and growth should come from within and seek to find alternatives to imports, including stepped up diversification of the economy.
He said: Right now, everybody’s minds should be occupied with moving forward… having more dynamic policy initiatives that won’t require change as they go forward in the next six to 12 months… because you are going to tell in the next six to 12 months for sure.”
For the island’s lone consumer group – the Barbados Consumer Empowerment Network (BCEN) – the priority should be on placing consumer protection and cost-of-living relief at the centre of the March 16 budget.
“With Barbadian households continuing to face rising food prices, increasing utility costs, and the introduction of new service fees across various sectors, BCEN believes the budget provides an important opportunity to deliver meaningful relief to consumers,” executive chairman Maureen Holder told Barbados TODAY on Thursday.
BCEN urged the administration to consider targeted cost-of-living relief through reduced taxes on essential food items and basic household goods, as well as a review of the impact of the 17.5 per cent VAT on electricity bills. It also called for stronger price transparency rules to prevent hidden fees and ensure consumers are fully informed about charges before completing transactions.
The consumer group also recommended stronger enforcement of the Consumer Protection Act and greater oversight of utilities by the Fair Trading Commission (FTC) to ensure fair pricing practices across the marketplace.
Holder added: “BCEN is also urging policymakers to examine the growing number of digital payment and ‘convenience’ fees being passed on to consumers, and that essential bill payments should remain accessible without additional financial burdens.”
The budget should support initiatives that strengthen food security, encourage greater domestic agricultural production, and expand public consumer education programmes, she said.
A consumer-focused budget would help ease the financial pressure facing many households while strengthening fairness, transparency, and confidence in the economic system, Holder suggested.
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