Caribbean countries are being warned to prepare for worsening drought and extreme heat as a rapidly strengthening El Niño threatens to intensify dry conditions across much of the region into 2027.
Climate experts from The University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) said on Tuesday that the region could face potentially record-breaking heat from as early as March, April or May next year.
The warning comes as August to October marks the peak of the Caribbean Heat Season, with unusually dry conditions already being experienced in parts of the region ahead of the climatological Dry Season, which begins around November.
CIMH climatologist Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck said El Niño conditions in the Pacific had rapidly strengthened from weak to moderate between May and July, with forecasts now pointing to very strong conditions between October and December.
El Niño is highly likely to persist into the peak of the Caribbean Dry Season in March 2027.
Historically, the phenomenon has been linked to severe regional droughts, including those experienced in 2009-2010 and 2014-2016, as well as increased risks of extreme humid heat, wildfires and marine heatwaves that can trigger coral bleaching.
Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, could also see slower recovery of water resources during what should be the peak of the Wet Season between September and October or November.
Forecasts show below-normal rainfall extending from the Guianas through the Lesser Antilles and into the Greater Antilles through at least October, accompanied by a significant increase in the number of hot-spell days.
The combined effect of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation is expected to lead to drought across most of the Windward, Leeward and ABC Islands, portions of the Greater Antilles, including Jamaica and Hispaniola, and parts of The Bahamas by October or November.
Those conditions could continue into early 2027 and spread across more of the Caribbean, with accumulated water deficits and wildfires becoming a greater concern.
“The risks signalled by the science earlier this year are now beginning to materialise,” said Professor Michael Taylor, Co-Director of UWI CSGM.
“We are seeing an emerging climate disaster whose impacts combine heat, drought, and marine extremes. Unlike a hurricane, the impacts will continue to build over months. However, that should not lessen the urgency or scale of our preparations.”
Taylor said action taken now would determine the options available to countries as conditions worsen.
The organisations warned that reduced rainfall and elevated temperatures could affect agricultural production, food security and rural livelihoods, particularly where farmers depend on rainfall.
Health risks could also increase because of water quality and availability, vector-borne diseases and heat-related illnesses.
Water and energy systems could come under additional pressure as demand for cooling increases, while the tourism sector could face greater demand for both cooling and freshwater.
The effects could extend to the cost of living if El Niño disrupts food production and international supply chains in markets on which Caribbean countries depend.
The organisations pointed to previous drought-related disruptions at the Panama Canal as an example of how severe dry conditions can affect trade routes and the movement of goods into the region.
Although El Niño is generally associated with quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons, Van Meerbeeck cautioned against complacency.
CIMH’s August outlook found strong evidence that the remainder of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season could produce fewer storms than an average year, following a relatively quiet start to the season.
However, Van Meerbeeck stressed that a single major hurricane or intense rainfall event could still cause significant loss and damage.
CIMH Principal Dr David Farrell urged governments and other decision-makers to act on the available climate information.
“Proactive measures are vital for mitigating the impacts of extreme weather events on climate-sensitive sectors, communities, and national economies,” he said.
The public and decision-makers are also being encouraged to follow monthly Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) updates on rainfall, drought, heat and other climate conditions as the region approaches the Dry Season.
(PR)
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