Barbadians are unlikely to get relief from unusually hot nights before the end of the year, while below-normal rainfall could extend drought conditions into 2027 and prompt further warnings before the current year ends, the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) has said.
Forecasters said overnight temperatures during the past two months ranked among the warmest one per cent on record, as El Niño conditions strengthen across the tropical Pacific.
In its latest report, based on a review of temperature trends from 2023 to 2026, the BMS said warmer-than-average temperatures were expected to persist until year end, with little nighttime relief.
It said: “Warmer than average temperatures are expected to persist until year end. Daytime maximum temperatures should peak between 32 degrees Celsius and 34 degrees Celsius until around November and between 27 degrees Celsius and 31 degrees Celsius thereafter. There will likely be very little relief at night, as overnight minimum temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average.”
A hydrological drought warning remains in effect and is likely to be extended into the dry season which starts on December 1, while an agricultural drought watch is likely by year end.
Drier-than-normal conditions were likely to persist for the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027, despite an increase in rainfall during August, said the Met Office, warning that high temperatures and below-normal wet-season rainfall could leave the island drier next year.
The report continued: “There does not appear to be a correlation between the strength of the El Niño and the degree of dryness, suggesting that other climate variables influence the degree of dryness. Dry spells will continue during the wet season, particularly across the south, east, and northeast of the island. High temperatures and below normal rainfall during the wet season could lead to a drier 2027, which could result in drought warnings being issued for the 2027 dry season before the end of 2026.”
The forecast is also that the 2027 heat season could begin early, with temperature records rivalling those set in 2023 and 2024.
It added that temperatures have been warmer than the climatological average during the past five years, with the most marked change occurring overnight. Minimum temperatures during the past two months were in the top one per cent of all minimum temperatures on record.
“Things look a bit different at night, with warmer-than-average minimum (nighttime) temperatures recorded every month, except in March. Although warmer than the 1991-2020 climatological average, the overnight minimum temperatures were cooler than 2024 and 2025 in all months, except July; July 2026 was warmer than July 2025 by 0.5 degrees Celsius. With the exception of March 2026, nighttime temperatures peaked above the climatological averages.”
Daytime temperatures have followed a different pattern. So far in 2026, average maximum temperatures have been close to the 1991-2020 climatological average and were cooler than those recorded in 2024 and 2025 until July. With the exception of August, average temperatures this year have been in line with the long-term average.
The 30-year climatological average could mask some of the warming seen in recent years, while a 15-year average better captured the shift to a warmer baseline, the forecasters said.
They noted that the Atlantic Ocean was historically warm in 2023 and, together with that year’s El Niño, contributed to much warmer temperatures.
Globally, the trend is sharper. According to the World Meteorological Organisation, the years from 2015 to 2025 were the 11 warmest on record, with 2023, 2024 and 2025 the three warmest. The year 2024 remains the warmest year on record globally.
El Niño began to evolve in April, and strong conditions are now present across the tropical Pacific. The BMS expects them to intensify into a very strong El Niño by the northern hemisphere winter.
El Niño occurs when the tropical Pacific Ocean becomes warmer than usual. It develops roughly every two to seven years, usually beginning around the northern hemisphere summer and peaking in winter. Events generally last between nine and 12 months.
A strong event is defined by sea-surface temperatures 1.5 degrees Celsius to 1.9 degrees Celsius above normal, and a very strong event by anomalies of two degrees Celsius or more.
The BMS said additional warming had been observed in Barbados coinciding with the onset of El Niño events. Temperatures in Barbados have been at their warmest since June, around the same time this year’s event was declared.
Despite the August increase, annual rainfall measured by the BMS at its Charnocks, Christ Church base remains below average. Every month this year, except January and March, has recorded below-normal rainfall.
“Although there was an uptick in rainfall, especially in August, annual rainfall at Charnocks is still below average. Thus far except for January and March, below normal rainfall was recorded for the entire year. Based on the 1991-2020 climatological average, 654.2mm of rainfall is measured up to the end of August. In August 2026, 554.9mm was recorded for the year, a deficit of 99.3mm. Although some intense rainfall events are expected in October and November, drier than normal conditions will likely persist for the remainder of 2026 and into early 2027,” the report stated.
Hot spells in the middle of the wet season can compound pauses in rainfall, the BMS explained. Drier-than-normal conditions are generally observed across the island during El Niño events.
El Niño has also coincided with suppressed activity during the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. At the time of the BMS report, there had been five tropical storms and no hurricanes.
As of Monday – the 71st anniversary of Hurricane Janet – the US National Hurricane Centre recorded six named storms and, for the first time in 112 years, no hurricanes in the Atlantic so late in the season. The BMS expects the suppressed activity to continue for the remainder of the season.
Before the satellite era began in 1966, the latest hurricane to form in a season was on September 21, 1941. That record, too, has now been broken.
While it is too early to predict the 2027 hurricane season, the Met Office said activity was likely to increase once El Niño conditions diminished.
Hot! Hot! Hot! What to know
- Hot nights will continue: The Met Office says there is likely to be little relief from warmer-than-average overnight temperatures before the end of the year. Minimum temperatures during the past two months were among the warmest 1 per cent on record.
- Daytime heat remains high: Maximum temperatures are expected to reach between 32 degrees C and 34 degrees C until around November, then between 27 degrees C and 31 degrees C thereafter.
- Dry conditions persist: Rainfall remains below average for the year, despite an uptick in August. Only January and March recorded above-normal rainfall.
- Drought warnings could continue: A hydrological drought warning remains in effect and may be extended into the dry season. An agricultural drought watch is likely by year-end.
- El Niño is strengthening: Strong El Niño conditions are present in the tropical Pacific and are expected to intensify into a very strong event by the northern hemisphere winter.
- Prepare for 2027: The BMS says the 2027 heat season could begin early, and temperatures could rival records set in 2023 and 2024. Dry conditions could also lead to drought warnings for the 2027 dry season before the end of 2026.
(LG)
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