As political parties make their final push ahead of a snap general election on Wednesday, two leading analysts debated the Democratic Labour Party’s decision to launch its manifesto just days before voters cast their ballots, revealing a split on whether the timing is a blunder or a calculated manoeuvre.
Political scientist Dr George Belle said he believes the party’s decision leaves voters with too little time to properly assess its plans.
“There’s a disadvantage in terms of people getting a hold of the manifesto and studying it. It’s a very short period of time — Sunday, Monday and Tuesday — and people have to vote on Wednesday. It’s not much time to even get the manifesto,” Dr Belle told Barbados TODAY.
The late release could also shape negative public perceptions about the party’s proposals, he suggested.
Dr Belle acknowledged that parties sometimes delay releasing manifestos to prevent opponents from copying ideas, but argued that such considerations should not outweigh the need to inform voters.
“Some don’t want to come too early because they feel the other person might be able to steal their ideas. That consideration is there in terms of timing, but at the same time, if you think your manifesto is strong, then you should give the electorate time to digest it.”
This election was not a marginal one where late moves were likely to significantly alter outcomes, and said the delay could ultimately work against the party, he said.
“That’s a kind of petty calculation, especially as this is not seen as a marginal election. I don’t know why you’d be holding back, thinking some late impact can bring about a big difference. I think it works to your disadvantage rather than your advantage.”
But regional pollster Peter Wickham argued that late manifesto launches are not unusual within Barbados’ political system, particularly for opposition parties.
He rejected claims that such timing automatically signals a lack of preparedness.
“It’s not as unusual as you might think because, within our system, manifestos — especially for parties not in government — tend to be launched pretty close to the date. They have to be written, and there’s a presumption that adjustments would be made based on what the government has said.”
Wickham pointed to historical precedent, citing the 1986 general election in which the Democratic Labour Party, led by Erskine Sandiford, won 24 seats after launching its manifesto after the incumbent Barbados Labour Party.
“There was what we call a ‘back race’, where the government proposed about $12 000 tax-free and the Democratic Labour Party proposed $15 000 tax-free. The only way you can get something like that is if you launch after, and my sense is that this may have been part of the DLP’s calculation.”
He said opposition parties could afford to take greater risks, as they face lower public expectations than governing parties.
“I think the DLP can get away with taking some chances because they’re not in government. If they were to win, they can always say that things looked very different before they actually saw the details.”
“They can also be more generous in terms of their manifesto proposals, and I suspect part of the reason they held back is because they wanted to see what they had to match.”
Wickham acknowledged that the timing has heightened public scrutiny.
“I think the public is suspicious of what the DLP has up its sleeve, there’s no question about it. Since the manifesto has been knocking around for long enough, people feel they had enough time to release it. The public is rightly suspicious, but that’s why I say it’s not terribly unusual.”
louriannegraham@barbadostoday.bb
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