Aregional climate outlook has warned that Barbados and other Caribbean countries face a heightened risk of flash flooding and related hazards over the next three months, with experts pointing to excessive rainfall, warming oceans and evolving El Niño conditions as key drivers during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
The latest Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) climate forecast for the July to September includes the release of reports on temperature and precipitation outlook maps, the drought outlook, the wet days and wet spells outlook, the dry spell outlook, the flash flood potential outlook, the heat outlook, and the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season activity outlook.
“During the summer portion of the Caribbean wet season, El Niño is strengthening and water around the Caribbean steadily warming,” said the CariCOF outlook.
It explained that this implies “the expected occurrence of excessive rainfall events leads to high to extremely high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts.
“Intrusions of dusty Saharan air will likely be frequent, inhibiting tropical cyclone activity, but exacerbating humid heat and deteriorating air quality.”
The forecasters have also indicated that the “steadily warming” waters around the region will result in increasingly intense humid heat into the peak of the heat season in September, culminating in recurrent heatwaves, especially in the far north.
Irregular bouts of Atlantic hurricane season activity through August will likely be followed by muted peak season activity in September, as well as slower than usual alleviation of lingering drought into September in the Lesser Antilles.
The updated prediction also calls for a slower than usual increase in rainfall frequency than in most years.
Looking at the latest drought situation as of May 1, CariCOF said severe (or worse) short-term drought has developed in parts of western Cuba, St Lucia and St Vincent, and similar conditions for the long term in Aruba and southern Belize.
With respect to agricultural drought, farmers have been assured there is no concern for widespread drought in the short term at the end of August.
But for the long term, drought is evolving in St Lucia and might possibly continue in Martinique and St Kitts at the end of November, the forecasters said.
The experts then turned to the outlook for September to November.
“This period marks the annual peak of the Caribbean Wet Season, the second half of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, as well as the peak and end of the Heat Season. Ocean temperatures around the Caribbean are forecast to warm into September – especially in the far north, where record heat is possible.
“Finally, the stronger the El Niño becomes, (i) the more intense the heat, (ii) the more likely widespread drought impacting the region during the 2026-27 dry season, but (iii) the less severe weather and tropical cyclone activity.” (EJ)
The post Flood risk warning issued for Caribbean as heavy rains forecast appeared first on Barbados Today.
