Barbadians could expect higher food prices within months as global shipping and raw material costs surge amid war in the Middle East war, the head of the Barbados Manufacturers’ Association warned on Monday.
While there has been no indication of immediate price increases, BMA president Rakeesh Bernard said that cost pressures were already building within the supply chain and could filter through to consumers once existing inventories run down.
“It’s a very uncertain time right now,” he told Barbados TODAY, as he responded to concerns following similar warnings from manufacturers in Jamaica.
“None of the manufacturers have indicated at this point that they are putting in place price increases, but … there is a possibility that there will be increases.”
Many manufacturers are currently insulated from the immediate impact because they purchase inputs in advance, holding stock that can last several months, Bernard said. That buffer, however, is temporary.
He continued: “A lot of our manufacturers, they forward buy … and so they’re not experiencing the price increases now, but in another two or three months you could see movements as those materials start to work their way through the system.”
That lag, he noted, could create a delayed effect where consumers feel the impact only after global price increases have already taken hold upstream.
Early signs of that pressure are already emerging.
Bernard confirmed that shipping lines have issued notices of higher freight rates, while suppliers have begun signalling increases in the cost of raw materials.
“We are seeing notification from the shippers that shipping costs will go up. We’ve seen notifications from some suppliers that raw material prices will go up,” he said.
He added that agricultural inputs such as fertiliser are also expected to become more expensive, a development that could further influence food prices locally over time.
“We do expect that things like fertiliser prices will definitely go up… that more will affect agriculture than manufacturing,” Bernard noted, pointing to the wider ripple effects across the food production chain.
Even so, he was careful not to suggest that price increases are inevitable, stressing that much will depend on how long the geopolitical tensions continue.
“If they end the war tomorrow morning, then no,” he said. “If the war continues, then yes, there is a possibility that we could see movement in prices in another two to three months if this continues and prices continue to rise.”
The BMA president’s comments follow the government’s announcement of a series of budgetary measures aimed at cushioning households and businesses from external shocks, including a cap on the freight component used to calculate import duties.
Delivering the 2026–27 national budget last month, Minister of Finance Ryan Straughn warned that emergency bunker surcharges imposed by major shipping lines amid the Middle East conflict were already contributing to further price pressures.
“While the government will do its best to shield the country from the full impact of these shocks, Bajans should also have an appreciation for the full picture,” he said at the time.
To blunt the immediate impact, Straughn announced that from April 1 to March 31 2027, Customs will cap the value of containers used to calculate duties and VAT at $3 000 for 20-foot containers and $6 000 for 40-foot containers on CIF shipments.
The move is intended to limit the extent to which rising global shipping costs are passed on to consumers through higher retail prices.
The BMA president welcomed the intervention, describing it as a timely and necessary step to support both industry and the wider economy.
“I think the government … is doing a lot to support the industry, to support the economy, and so we were very happy to see what they did,” he said.
“We thought it was a strong intention to support the Barbados economy, both the people and the industries… we have no complaints.”
(SM)
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