This report segment places the current political mood alongside the last two General Elections using a like-for-like comparison: vote share among those who actually make a party choice. This is the standard approach used in classic swing analysis, because election results themselves only include people who voted.
The comparison shows that while the Barbados Labour Party’s (BLP) vote share dipped slightly between 2018 and 2022, it remains historically high. In the current poll, among voters who are prepared to choose a party, the BLP’s share is higher than in either of the last two elections, while the Democratic Labour Party’s (DLP) share is lower than at any point since 2018.
Discussion on swing analysis of parties’ voter shares When we compare the current poll with the last General Election using the standard or “classic” swing approach, the movement is clear among voters who are prepared to choose a party.
In the 2022 election, the BLP won just under seven out of every ten valid votes cast. In the current poll, among respondents who name either the BLP or the DLP, just over threequarters now say they would vote for the BLP. This represents an increase of about eight percentage points in the governing party’s share among decided voters, indicating that support for the BLP has consolidated rather than weakened since the last election.
The picture for the DLP moves in the opposite direction. In 2022, it secured just over a quarter of the valid votes cast. In the current poll, its share among decided voters falls to under one in five. This drop of roughly eight percentage points suggests that the Opposition party has lost ground among voters who are ready to make a clear party choice, rather than converting dissatisfaction with the Government into committed support for itself.
Taken together, these two movements produce what pollsters call a two-party swing of about eight points towards the BLP. In simple terms, this means that among people who are already willing to choose between the two main parties, momentum has shifted in favour of the governing party rather than towards the Opposition.
Importantly, this swing does not mean that all voters are becoming more enthusiastic about the BLP. Instead, it shows that dissatisfaction with politics is not translating into a swing to the DLP, but is instead being expressed through uncertainty, silence or a decision not to vote.
The swing therefore reflects a strengthening of the BLP’s position among committed voters, alongside continued difficulty for the DLP in presenting itself as a convincing alternative.
Important cautions when reading the swing figures Firstly, the swing discussed here is based only on voters who are prepared to name a party today. It deliberately excludes people who are undecided, refuse to state a preference or say they will not vote. This means the swing shows relative strength among committed voters, not the views of the entire electorate.
A large number of Barbadians remain uncommitted, and their eventual decisions or decision not to vote could still affect the final outcome. When undecided and nonvoting respondents are included, the story shifts from a swing toward the BLP to a broader pattern of voter disengagement, where dissatisfaction is expressed through uncertainty and abstention, rather than support for the Opposition.
Second, a swing towards the BLP does not automatically imply higher enthusiasm or higher turnout. Many respondents who do not currently support the Opposition are not switching to the BLP; instead, they are expressing frustration by remaining uncertain or disengaged.
If these groups stay home on election day, the results may reflect the choices of a smaller, more motivated segment of the population rather than broad national sentiment.
Third, swing analysis compares like with like, but the context around elections can change. The 2022 election occurred under conditions of low turnout and unusual political circumstances, and the current poll reflects opinions at a particular moment in time. Poll results capture attitudes, not actions, and voter behaviour can still shift during campaigns, especially as parties release manifestos, nominate candidates and increase mobilisation.
Finally, this is a national poll, not a constituency-level study. Even a strong national swing does not translate directly into seat outcomes, which depend on who turns out and where. Local candidate effects, constituencyspecific issues and differential turnout across communities can all alter election results in ways that national swing figures cannot predict.
Please see tomorrow’s DAILY NATION for another report from The Nation/ Starcom national political survey which will focus on leadership, likeability and readiness to govern: public views on political leaders.
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